LowryTeam.com Real Estate Trends Report – October 2011
Here is the newest edition of our LowryTeam.com Monthly Real Estate Trends Report. This report, published monthly, provides a look back at the last six months worth of real estate data for West Chester, Beckett Ridge and Liberty Township, Ohio. It is a local trends report and makes no attempt to draw overall conclusions or make predictions for the larger real estate market. In fact we believe that anyone that makes an attempt to predict future, national real estate market conditions or draws conclusions on recent historical data nationally is just out of touch with reality. There is no such thing as a national weather forecast and there is no such thing as a real estate one either. ALL real estate is local!
The source of our data is the Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service. By seeking out and understanding the trends in our market place we are better able to forecast the upcoming market conditions and counsel our clients on pricing strategies to get their home sold for the highest possible price. Any thoughts and insight into what may occur in the future are solely our opinions and forecasts.
The first thing we look at is unit sales for the last six months (April – September):
A look at the sales numbers:
As we move into October and look back at this most recent six months of data, the trend that we are watching for right now is to see how unit sales will play out in the 4th quarter of the year. The 4th quarter sales last year (2010) were extremely weak, so we expect to see home sales continue to show improvement when compared to 2010. Sales in July thru September of 2011 have shown significant increases over the sales numbers for July thru September of 2010. The sales in July 2010 really dropped off after the expiration of the Homebuyer Tax Credits that were in place last year.
As of the end of September, the year to date sales for 2011 are very close to the same as the year to date sales for 2010 in West Chester & Liberty Township. 2011 year to date sales are down -1.66%
Average sale prices:
In this graph you can see the movement of the average sale price for West Chester and Liberty Township, Ohio real estate sales from January 2010 through September of 2011. The trend line continues to show you a decline for average home sale prices. Average sale price gets quite a bit of attention in the media with reports that quote “home prices fell” or “home prices rose” in this particular quarter or month or whatever. The average sale price is nothing more than what it’s called – an average price of all of the homes sold in a particular time frame.
Any increase or decrease in the average sale price is reflective of the activity of that time frame not the exact value of any one home. Falling home values do clearly effect the average sale price, but that is not the whole story. The mix of homes and their values definitely play a part in this fluctuation, ie., many more lower priced homes selling than in the luxury market.
List to sale price ratio:
The List to Sale Price ratio is calculated by dividing the final sale price into the list price to find the percentage of the list price that a given home sells for. The West Chester and Liberty Township Ohio List to Sale Price Ratio was 96.32% for September 2011. As you can see the monthly List to Sale Price Ratio has seen some big swings up and down in the last year. Overall the recent months list to sale price ratio seems to be fairly stable and on a slightly upward track. The highlighted center area of the graph shows what appears to be the middle ground right now for the market.
As we have stated previously in the LowryTeam.com: West Chester, Beckett Ridge and Liberty Township real estate market update, our market remains challenging, yet full of opportunity. Clearly the value of homes in West Chester, Beckett Ridge & Liberty Twp has fallen over the past couple of years and frankly, the values may still fall farther. The primary threats or obstacles to the final quarter of 2011 real estate market and any potential recovery are continued high unemployment, a considerable oversupply of homes for sale and the potential loss of the mortgage interest tax deduction. Interest rates have settled back down and are at historical low levels around 4.25% which provide a great environment for buying a new home.
Wondering what the value of your home currently is? We would be happy to provide you with a detailed market value analysis of the value of your home. You can request your Market Value Analysis here
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Your comments and questions are always welcome!