Here is the newest edition of our LowryTeam.com Monthly Real Estate Trends Report covering sales for July 2011. This report, published monthly, provides a look back at the last six months worth of real estate data for West Chester, Beckett Ridgeand Liberty Township, Ohio. It is a local trends report and makes no attempt to draw overall conclusions or make predictions for the larger real estate market. In fact we believe that anyone that makes an attempt to predict future, national real estate market conditions or draws conclusions on recent historical data nationally is just out of touch with reality. There is no such thing as a national weather forecast and there is no such thing as a real estate one either. ALL real estate is local!
The source of our data is the Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service. By seeking out and understanding the trends in our market place we are better able to forecast the upcoming market conditions and counsel our clients on pricing strategies to get their home sold for the highest possible price. Any thoughts and insight into what may occur in the future are solely our opinions and forecasts.
The first thing we look at is unit sales for the last six months (February – July):
It’s all about the sales numbers right now:
As we move towards the end of August and look back at this most recent six months of data, the trend that we are watching for right now is to see if there will be a continued softening in unit sales as we saw in 2010. The graph for this year’s sales show very little of what we typically call the spring market. Sales in July of 2011 finally were up over the sales numbers for July of 2010. The sales in July 2010 really dropped off after the expiration of the Homebuyer Tax Credits that were in place last year. These tax credits had really propped up the home sales in the first half of 2010.
Everyone was excited to see the increase of unit sales over the same month in the previous year. This was the first time we had seen this happen since January. What does this really mean though? First, based on the very low comparisions for the rest of the year vs. 2010, this is a trend that we are likely to see continue for a number of months in a row. And secondly, a look at how these July sales numbers stacked up against the July sales numbers for previous years is perhaps a better place to draw some perspective.
While the sales figures for July (2011 vs 2010) were up, the July 2011 sales were the second lowest in the past decade for the West Chester & Liberty Township Ohio real estate market for the month of July.
When considering the health of the housing market, everything hinges right now on home sales. Home prices will not be able to show any stability in the foreseeable future with the amount of inventory (homes for sale) that we currently have on the market vs. the number of homes that are actually selling. We have a large oversupply of homes for sale in West Chester and Liberty Township and this only puts further pressure on listing and sale prices. We believe that home values will continue to fall. For homeowners needing to sell, the best chance to get the highest price for their home is to get the home sold in the very near term. It truly is all about the home sales numbers right now!
Average sale price for the last six months (February – July) is next:
In this graph you can see the movement of the average sale price for West Chester and Liberty Township, Ohio real estate sales from January 2010 through July of 2011. The trend line continues to show you a gradual decline for average home sale prices. Average sale price gets quite a bit of attention in the media with reports that quote “home prices fell” or “home prices rose” in this particular quarter or month or whatever. The average sale price is nothing more than what it’s called – an average price of all of the homes sold in a particular time frame.
However, just to be clear here, homes are not worth more now than they were at the beginning of the year. Any increase or decrease in the average sale price is reflective of the activity of that time frame not the exact value of any one home. Falling home values do clearly effect the average sale price, but that is not the whole story. The mix of homes and their values definitely play a part in this fluctuation, ie., many more lower priced homes selling than in the luxury market.
List to sale price ratio:
The List to Sale Price ratio is calculated by dividing the final sale price into the list price to find the percentage of the list price that a given home sells for. The West Chester and Liberty Township Ohio List to Sale Price Ratio was 96.91% for July 2011. As you can see the monthly List to Sale Price Ratio has seen some big swings up and down in the last year. The swings up and down are an indicator of the lack of stability in the West Chester and Liberty Township real estate market right now. The highlighted center area of the graph shows what appears to be the middle ground right now for the market.
As we have stated previously in the LowryTeam.com: West Chester, Beckett Ridge and Liberty Township real estate market update, our market remains challenging, yet full of opportunity. Clearly the value of homesin the area has fallen over the past couple of years and frankly, the values are likely to fall farther. The primary threats or obstacles to the second half of 2011 real estate market and any potential recovery are continued high unemployment, a considerable oversupply of homes for sale and the potential loss of the mortgage interest tax deduction. Interest rates have settled back down and are at historical low levels around 4.25% which provide a great environment for buying a new home.
Wondering what the value of your home currently is? We would be happy to provide you with a detailed market value analysis of the value of your home. You can request your Market Value Analysis here
Your comments and questions are always welcome!
Other related posts you may be interested in: