I am pleased to present my 1st Quarter 2010 Real Estate Market Report for West Chester, Beckett Ridge and Liberty Township, Ohio. In this report you will find detailed real estate information and statistics. The source of this information is the Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service. By seeking out and understanding the trends in our market place we are better able to forecast the upcoming market conditions. Any thoughts and insight into what may occur in the future are solely my opinions and forecasts.
I am very focused on providing the best information possible and to being the real estate expert in our West Chester, Beckett Ridge & Liberty Township, Ohio area. Please let me know if you have any questions regarding any of this information. So let’s get started:
SALES:
There were 189 homes sold in the 1st Quarter of 2010 compared to 195 homes sold in the 1st Quarter of 2009. This represents a decrease of 3.08%. If you simply leave it at that, it doesn’t look too bad. However, if you dissect the market a little, you will see that things can look a little different depending on the price range. Also, we must keep in mind that in the 1st Quarter of 2010, sales with out question have been supported / propped up by the goverment’s tax credit incentives for both 1st time homebuyers and repeat buyers. We did not have these incentives in place in the 1st Quarter of 2009, thus one could surmise, pretty easily I think, that the percentage decrease would have been quite a bit larger if not for the tax credit incentives.
Below, you will see the sales broken down by price range, which paints a picture of several different markets within the West Chester and Liberty Township, Ohio real estate market:
| Price Range | 2010 Units | 2009 Units | + or – % |
| Less than $200,000 | 93 | 97 | -4.12% |
| $200,000 – $249,999 | 36 | 44 | -18.18% |
| $250,000 – $299,999 | 27 | 30 | -10.00% |
| $300,000 – $399,999 | 21 | 20 | -5.00% |
| $400,000 – $499,999 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| $500, 000 + | 8 | 2 | 300% |
AVERAGE SALE PRICE:
The average sale price in the 1st Quarter of 2010 for the West Chester and Liberty Township Ohiomarkets was $223,139 compared to $207,772 in the 1st Quarter of 2009, which constitutes an increase of 7.40%. So, let’s talk about what this means and what it doesn’t mean. First, it does mean that the average price of all of the homes that sold was quite a bit higher, 7.02% higher in fact. However, what this doesn’t mean is that the value of our homes rose by 7.40% in this period. This average sale price is affected quite a bit in this case by the fact that we saw a pretty good increase of sales of higher priced homes compared to the market as a whole. This occurred while we had a decrease in the percentage of sales closed in all of the ranges under the $400,000 range, thus causing the average to be higher.
So, is this good news or bad news? Really to be honest, it is no news. To know the value of your home and just how much the value has fallen you need a detailed, analytical analysis of the current market value. You cannot draw a conclusion from market averages, and certainly not from what you read in the newspaper, Cincinnati Enquirer, USA Today or otherwise.
SUPPLY OF HOMES FOR SALE:
The oversupply of homes for sale is where the pricing pressure comes from. Too many homes for sale in relation to how many are selling is a critical indicator to monitor as we watch for signs of market stabilization. At the end of the 1st Quarter of 2010 we had 720 homes for sale in the West Chester, Beckett Ridge and Liberty Township, Ohio marketplace compared to 743 homes for sale in 2009. Meaning we have not seen a huge reduction in the amount of homes for sale. With a current inventory of 720 homes for sale, based on our current rate of sale we have just under 7.39 months worth of inventory for sale. Meaning if we continue to sell homes at the current pace and no new listings come on the market, it would take us just under 7.39 months to sell them all compared to a 7.75 month supply one year ago. So, relative to the pace that homes are selling, we have seen a small reduction in the inventory of homes for sale. However, just like unit sales, these numbers can vary greatly by price range as you can see below.
| PRICE RANGE | HOMES FOR SALE | MONTHS SUPPLY |
| Less than $200,000 | 299 | 6.42 |
| $200,000 – $249,999 | 140 | 6.46 |
| $250,000 – $299,999 | 80 | 6.49 |
| $300,000 – $399,999 | 98 | 9.19 |
| $400,000 – $499,999 | 49 | 14.00 |
| $500,000 + | 54 | 20.22 |
INTEREST RATES:
At the end of the 1st Quarter of 2010 interest rates on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage were hovering around a range of 4.95% – 5.05% which is largely the same as they were just one year ago. We have seen interest rates start to increase in the last few weeks though. Just two weeks ago that thirty year mortgage was right around 4.75%. So in the last two weeks rates have increased approx. .30%. This is still a very clear example of the extreme value of today’s interest rates.
TOP 10 SALES:
The top 10 sales of the 1st Quarter of 2010*:
| 1. 6694 Southampton Lane | West Chester | $833,900 |
| 2. 7347 Wetherington Drive | West Chester | $778,965 |
| 3. 7311 Tamarron Place | West Chester | $725,000 |
| 4. 6883 Harbour Town Drive | West Chester | $563,545 |
| 5. 7277 Southampton Lane | West Chester | $535,000 |
| 6. 7237 Clawson Court | West Chester | $529,900 |
| 7. 7286 Southampton Lane | West Chester | $529,900 |
| 8. 4200 Tylers Estate Drive | West Chester | $515,000 |
| 9. 5816 Ferdinand Drive | West Chester | $478,000 |
| 10. 6745 Cherry Laurel Drive | Liberty Twp. | $430,000 |
*These sales are not necessarily those of Eric Lowry and the Lowry Team.
Summary:
The West Chester, Beckett Ridge and Liberty Township real estate market remains challenging, yet full of opportunity. Clearly the value of homes in the area has fallen over the past couple of years and frankly, in certain price ranges, the values are likely to fall farther. I would expect in the market overall, for the rate of decline to slow, however, only when the supply of homes for sale drops and the number of buyers increases, will prices stabilize. It will take a number of years to return to the values that we once experienced. Exactly how long will be determined by the overall economy including the unemployment rate and of course how long interest rates are able to remain low. This is a great market to buy a home and is particularly good for 1st time home buyers. It is also very favorable for homeowners looking to move up to a larger home. Any loss experienced on the selling side should be more than made up for on the purchase side. Your comments and questions are always welcome! Wondering what your home is worth in today’s real estate market? Request a market analysis here!
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