I am pleased to present my 2nd Quarter 2009 Real Estate Market Report for West Chester, Beckett Ridge and Liberty Township, Ohio. In this report you will find detailed real estate information and statistics. The source of this information is the Greater Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service. By seeking out and understanding the trends in our market place we are better able to forecast the upcoming market conditions. Any thoughts and insight into what may occur in the future are solely my opinions and forecasts.
I am very focused on providing the best information possible and to being the real estate expert in our area. Please let me know if you have any questions regarding any of this information. So let’s get started:
SALES:
There were 294 units sold for the 2nd Quarter of 2009 compared to 364 units sold in the 2nd Quarter of 2008. This represents a decrease of 19.23%. If you simply leave it at that, it looks pretty bad, however if you dissect the market a little, you will see that things can look a little different depending on the price range. Below, you will see the sales broken down by price range, which paints a picture of several different markets within the West Chester and Liberty Township, Ohio real estate market.
| Price Range | 2009 Units | 2008 Units | + or – % |
| Less than $200,000 | 140 | 143 | -2.10% |
| $200,000 – $249,999 | 72 | 100 | -28.00% |
| $250,000 – $299,999 | 40 | 56 | -28.57% |
| $300,000 – $399,999 | 25 | 39 | -35.90% |
| $400,000 – $499,999 | 13 | 17 | -23.53% |
| $500, 000 + | 4 | 9 | -55.55% |
AVERAGE SALE PRICE:
The average sale price in the 2nd Quarter of 2009 for the West Chester and Liberty Township Ohiomarkets was $214,898 compared to $231,621 in the 2nd Quarter of 2008, which constitutes a decrease of 7.22%. So, let’s talk about what this means and what it doesn’t mean. First, it does mean that the average price of all of the homes that sold was quite a bit lower, 7.22% lower in fact. However, what this doesn’t mean is that the value of our homes fell by 7.22% in this period. This average sale price is affected quite a bit by the fact that a much larger percentage of sales occurred in the under $250,000 range, thus causing the average to be lower. So, is this good news or bad news? Really to be honest, it is no news. To know the value of your home and just how much the value has fallen you need a detailed, analytical analysis of the current market value. You cannot draw a conclusion from market averages, and certainly not from what you read in the newspaper, Cincinnati Enquirer, USA Today or otherwise.
SUPPLY OF HOMES FOR SALE:
The oversupply of homes for sale is where the pricing pressure comes from. Too many homes for sale in relation to how many are selling is a critical indicator to monitor as we watch for signs of market stabilization. At the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2009 we had 729 homes for sale in the West Chester, Beckett Ridge and Liberty Township, Ohio marketplace compared to 924 homes for sale in 2008. This represents a huge reduction in the amount of homes for sale. With a current inventoryof 729 homes for sale, based on our current rate of sale we have just under 7.5 months worth of inventory for sale. Meaning if we continue to sell homes at the current pace and no new listings come on the market, it would take us just under 7.5 months to sell them all compared to a 7.6 month supply one year ago. So, because the pace of sales has fallen so dramatically, the level of inventory is really the same on a relative basis. However, just like unit sales, these numbers can vary greatly by price range as you can see below.
| PRICE RANGE | HOMES FOR SALE | MONTHS SUPPLY |
| Less than $200,000 | 251 | 5.38 |
| $200,000 – $249,999 | 159 | 6.63 |
| $250,000 – $299,999 | 85 | 6.38 |
| $300,000 – $399,999 | 114 | 13.69 |
| $400,000 – $499,999 | 45 | 10.39 |
| $500,000 + | 75 | 56.39 |
INTEREST RATES:
At the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2009 interest rates on a Thirty year fixed rate mortgage were hovering around a range of 5.30% – 5.40%. Just one year ago at the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2008 interest rates for the same mortgage were 6.25% – 6.50%. This is a very clear example of the extreme value of today’s interest rates.
TOP 10 SALES:
The top 10 sales of the 2nd Quarter of 2009*:
| 1. 7230 Londondale Drive | West Chester | $640,000 |
| 2. 6998 Lesourdsville-WC | Liberty Twp. | $625,000 |
| 3. 8162 Alpine Aster Ct | Liberty Twp. | $540,000 |
| 4. 7254 Barrister Ct | West Chester | $506,000 |
| 5. 7427 Great Waters | West Chester | $493,000 |
| 6. 6249 Lancashire Trl | Liberty Twp. | $490,000 |
| 7. 6049 Winding Creek | Liberty Twp. | $483,000 |
| 8. 7663 Overglen Dr | West Chester | $465,900 |
| 9. 7111 Linn Rd | Liberty Twp. | $460,000 |
| 10. 7500 Susan Springs | West Chester | $439,000 |
*These sales are not necessarily those of Eric Lowry
Summary:
The West Chester, Beckett Ridge and Liberty Township real estate market remains challenging, yet full of opportunity. Clearly the value of homes in the area has fallen over the past couple of years and frankly, in certain price ranges, the values are likely to fall farther. I would expect in the market overall for the rate of decline to slow, however, only when the supply of homes for sale drops and the number of buyers increases, will prices stabilize. It will take a number of years to return to the values that we once experienced. Exactly how long will be determined by the overall economy including the unemployment rate and of course how long interest rates are able to remain low. This is a great market to buy a home and is particularly good for 1st time homebuyers. It is also very favorable for homeowners looking to move up to a larger home. Any loss experienced on the selling side should be more than made up for on the purchase side.
Your comments and questions are always welcome!
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